Collector's guide

Pokémon pull rates

The odds of each rarity, and what a pack or a box of each set is really worth, at today's prices.

The short answer

At today's prices, 30th Celebration packs are worth the most on average: about €7.79 each, or €70.11 for a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box. At the bottom of the ranking, Chaos Rising: about €1.70 per pack. These averages come from a few very expensive cards: most boxes return less than their average.

The sets compared

Highest average pack value first. Tap a set for its odds rarity by rarity and its virtual pack.

How Pokémon pull rates work

A Mega Evolution pack has 10 cards: commons and uncommons, two reverse holos and one rare. The rare can be replaced by a Double Rare (ex), an Ultra Rare or a Mega Hyper Rare (gold); the second reverse holo by an Illustration Rare or a Special Illustration Rare.

On average, about one pack in five has a Double Rare, one in nine an Illustration Rare, one in twelve an Ultra Rare, one in 80 to 100 a Special Illustration Rare, and about one in 1,000 a Mega Hyper Rare.

Scarlet & Violet sets have the same pack, with a Hyper Rare (gold) instead of the Mega Hyper Rare, and sometimes an ACE SPEC card. Their Hyper Rares come out far more often: about 1 pack in 140 to 190.

Average or median: out of 2,000 boxes simulated with these rates, only 28% reach the average value of Surging Sparks. That is why each page also gives what a box returns half the time.

No reliable rate yet

Shrouded FableNo large public count: the figures going around don't say how many packs they're based on.
Black BoltAbout 700 packs counted for Black Bolt and White Flare together: too few.
White FlareAbout 700 packs counted for Black Bolt and White Flare together: too few.

Where these figures come from

These rates are estimates, not official figures: they come from large public openings counted by the community. A single box can stray far from them.

TCGplayer : 30th Celebration Pull Rates · over 3,000 packs
PokéZentrum : Pull Rates im Überblick · several counts combined
TCGTalk : 30th Anniversary Pull Rates · figure going around, not verified
TCGplayer : Ascended Heroes Pull Rates · over 2,000 packs
PokéZentrum : Erhabene Helden, erste Pull Rates · about 4,000 packs
TCGplayer : Surging Sparks Pull Rates · over 8,000 packs
TCGplayer : Prismatic Evolutions Pull Rates · over 1,200 packs
TCGplayer : Phantasmal Flames Pull Rates · over 5,000 packs
TCGplayer : Destined Rivals Pull Rates · over 8,000 packs
TCGplayer : Stellar Crown Pull Rates · over 8,000 packs
TCGplayer : Mega Evolution Pull Rates · over 5,000 packs
TCGplayer : Perfect Order Pull Rates · over 3,500 packs
PokéZentrum : Optimale Ordnung, Pull Rates · about 4,000 packs
TCGplayer : Journey Together Pull Rates · over 8,000 packs
TCGplayer : Pitch Black Pull Rates · over 4,000 packs
TCGplayer : Chaos Rising Pull Rates · over 8,500 packs

Frequently asked questions

Which Pokémon set has the best pull rates?

Are Pokémon pull rates official?

No. The Pokémon Company does not publish the odds of each rarity. The rates on this page are estimates counted by the community on large public openings, with their sources.

Is opening boxes to resell profitable?

Rarely. A box's average value is pulled up by a few very expensive cards: most boxes return less, and reselling takes time and fees. For one specific card, buying it as a single is almost always cheaper.

How much is a 30th Celebration pack worth?

About €7.79 on average at today's prices, and €70.11 for a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box. Half the time, one Elite Trainer Box gives less than €43.75.

How much is a Ascended Heroes pack worth?

About €4.64 on average at today's prices, and €41.74 for a 9-pack Elite Trainer Box. Half the time, one Elite Trainer Box gives less than €16.85.

How much is a Surging Sparks pack worth?

About €4.44 on average at today's prices, and €160 for a 36-pack booster box. Half the time, one booster box gives less than €140.

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